Where we were
The S&P Global PMIs from March (indexes of the purchasing managers) landed at the start of last week and were central. The services PMI of the eurozone delayed up to 50.4, compared to 50.6 in February, while the production activity remained in the contractive field, albeit rising to 48.7 of 47.6. UK PMIs showed that the service sector was extended to 53.2 from 51.0, which compensated a significant decrease in production activity – falls to 44.6 of 46.9. In the US, despite the production of PMI that immerses in contractive site (49.8 versus 52.7), the PMI data rose from services to 54.3 of 51.0.
The Australian and VK CPI inflation data (consumer price index) also recorded part of the macrospotlight last week, with headline year-on-year (JY) CPI inflation that delays both Australia and the VK in February, so that 2.4% was removed in January) and 2,5% respectively) and 2,5% respectively) De voorkeursinflatiemaatstaf van de Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – het ‘getrimde gemiddelde’ – ook afgekoeld tot 2,7% jj van 2,8%, terwijl de kern -CPI -inflatie van JY UK tot 3,5% verlichtte tot 3,5%.
The end of the last week witnessed the American GDP growth (gross domestic product) in a higher touch; Fierced by consumer expenditure, the real GDP reported an annual percentage of 2.4% for Q4 24 (final estimate). Whether the US can maintain this growth rate, given the fear of trading problems and policy uncertainty, the question is now. Interestingly, according to the US Federal Reserve (FED) of Atlanta Nowcast Model, 2025 is ready for a gloomy start, with the latest estimate that a contraction of 1.8% in Q1 25 indicates. That said, the alternative model prediction, adapted for import and export of gold, is 0.2%.
US PCE (Personal Consumption Consumption) Data for February were also released on Friday, which, as I know for sure, is what the FED uses to follow inflation. Headline Month-on Month (mm) and YY prints tailored to estimates and corresponding data from January on 0.3% and 2.5% respectively. Core PCE data, however, rose by 0.4% mm (of 0.3%) and 2.8% JJ (of 2.6%). This indicates persistent inflation – data that the Fed probably keeps stable and for the time being waiting for the sidelines. Markets expect a decision without change in May, although the June meeting remains possible for a cut of 25 basic points (-20 BPS).
Where we are
Without a doubt, despite a whole series of American job numbers on the Docket this week, developments around Trump’s mutual rates will dominate sentiment. In short, the Trump administration is expected to take away trade with other countries. Tarif threats will of course probably continue to claim the headlines until 2 April.