At 12:56 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $30.37, down $0.16 or -0.54%.
Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar are weighing on silver
Silver, like gold, continues to face headwinds from rising US Treasury yields and a resilient dollar. Ten-year government bond yields have risen to 4.40%, reflecting market sentiment for tighter monetary policy next year. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.
The US dollar index (DXY) remains steady around 107.00, putting further pressure on silver by making it more expensive for foreign investors. Traders are keeping a close eye on any dovish or hawkish signals from the Fed, which could shape the dollar’s near-term direction.
Fed Outlook: Focus on Rate Cuts in 2025
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in today’s decision, with a 95% probability priced in. However, attention will turn to the updated dot chart and forecasts for 2025. Analysts expect a more aggressive stance, with two or three interest rates. cuts expected instead of four previously predicted.
Resilient US economic data, including a 0.7% increase in retail sales in November, supports this cautious outlook. The stronger economy reduces pressure on the Fed to aggressively cut rates, a scenario that could further weigh on silver prices.
Short-term outlook: cautious about bearish risks
The near-term outlook for silver remains under pressure as it struggles to hold above $30.39 and the 50-day moving average at $31.29. If the Fed takes a hawkish tone, silver could test lower support levels near $29.64, with the 200-day moving average of $29.60 acting as crucial long-term support. A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling.