Silver broke on December 18. It recovered a Fibonacci number on January 9, 2025, exactly after 13 trading days. Silver’s failed collapse is inherently bullish.
In this article we focus on the silver card. We combine time and price analysis.
In doing so, we find that silver’s recent weakness coincided with a failed collapse, which was declared invalid on Thursday, January 9, 2025.
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That’s potentially great news for silver investors, as silver’s failed collapse has the legacy of leading to selling exhaustion by creating an inflection point.
The Failed Collapse of Silver – Price
We look at the price axis of the silver chart.
- The 2024 rising trendline was breached on December 18, 2024.
- The FOMC press conference combined with the decision to reduce interest rates pushed the silver price down sharply.
- This broke the rising trend line.
Looking strictly at price, silver is now in a long-term consolidation, below the uptrend (still flat).
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However, on January 9, 2025, silver regained the rising trendline. For now, the December breakdown has been declared invalid.
The Failed Collapse of Silver – Time
Does the failed failure matter?
That’s the case, especially and specifically because silver regained its ascending trendline right on day #13, a Fibonacci number.
This actually means, as a general principle, that the invalidation of the fault has been confirmed.
If a disturbance (or breakout) becomes invalid on a day that coincides with a number in the Fibonacci sequence, this strengthens the invalidation case.
With this in mind, we know the following:
- Silver violated its rising trendline on December 18, 2024.
- Silver stayed below its trendline for twelve trading days without touching it.
- On day #13, silver once again reached its rising trendline.
Failed breakdowns are often bullish. Why? Because there is a lot of sales pressure associated with the outage. Let’s face it: the entire investment community is taking notice.
Evidence – Silver speculators are finally giving up, while gold speculators are unanimously sticking around for a long time.
But the most important thing is whether there is succession or not.
What matters equally is whether key chart structures are recovered on a Fibonacci day.
The prospects of silver in 2025
However, the silver chart remains bullish, in the long term.
In the short term, it’s choppy, and that’s fine.
The news is also choppy, so again, news doesn’t help in understanding direction.
Choppy setups are a prerequisite for a bullish outcome, provided key support is respected.
While fundamentals remain strong, the mass exodus of speculators is the best news, especially when combined with the 50-year cup-and-handle reversal pattern on the silver chart!