The weakness in the silver price raises the question of whether silver’s bull run is completely over or if this is just a brief pause before the next leg of silver’s bull market begins. It seems like it’s more of the latter. Here’s why.
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While we do not do an in-depth analysis of silver’s leading indicators, it is mandatory to look at each leading indicator to gain a thorough understanding of the state of the silver market.
In this article we will only look at the price axis and quickly discuss the time axis, but we will not discuss the leading indicators.
For a detailed
Silver price weakness: healthy decline or crash?
We wrote extensively about the silver market in our silver forecast 2024. A few quotes that matter:
InvestingHaven’s research team confirms that USD34.70/oz is still an achievable target in 2024. Our second bullish target of $48-$50 is likely to be reached in the first half of 2025.
Many influencing factors currently play a role. In fact, the current environment is very dynamic. It leads to many ‘mini cycles’ that prevent investors from seeing the big picture:
While geopolitical tensions, both in the Middle East and in… strengthened by Ukraine/Russia in May and June 2024 have created even more uncertainty, but have not resulted in a meaningful increase in precious metals. However, with the prospects of interest rate cuts in the US since early July 3, 2024, gold and silver appear to be reacting positively.
Overall, there is an argument to be made that silver’s continued weakness is a pullback, a healthy pullback, and not a crash. We write about this extensively in our weekend reports: gold and silver premium market reports >>
Silver Price Chart: Key Fibonacci Levels
While it is true that the silver complex is quite complex (duh), it is also possible to do this simply to some extent.
The core of simplification lies in Fibonacci price analysis. A bit more advanced is Fibonacci timeline analysis.
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Although we believe that Fibonacci only answers some of the relevant questions, it is certainly a valuable tool when used properly.
Right now, the key Fibonacci levels suggest that silver is testing the higher Fibonacci levels (the more bullish ones).
Another simple conclusion is that silver is bullish as long as it remains above the 50% Fibonacci level of USD 24.4/oz. Leading indicators do not suggest silver will move much below the critical 50% Fibonacci level.
Silver Timeline Analysis
While Fibonacci price analysis is useful, Fibonacci timeline analysis is even more insightful.
From our analysis written and published on Linkedin – The most insightful Silver Chart analysis you will ever read:
While we have the decisive dates: November 8, 2024 and January 21, 2025we will continue to monitor the market closely. This scenario is not a prediction, but a way to illustrate our methodology. Stay tuned for further updates as we navigate the exciting and dynamic silver market in 2024 and beyond.
How we derived this data and the link to Fibonacci is explained in the above-mentioned article. We recommend reading it.
The most important tip: don’t expect any silver fireworks between now and November 8, 2024.
In the very best case scenario, there will be a consolidation in August/September/October, with a continuation of the bull run in November/December. That’s our best guess based on our Fibonacci time and price analysis.
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