US economic indicators point to a soft landing
On Friday, US durables and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers raised expectations for a soft US economic landing. Orders for durable goods, excluding transport, rose 0.4% in September, after rising 0.6% in August. Additionally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in October from 70.1 in September, up from a preliminary 69.0.
The optimistic data supported investors’ expectations of a soft economic landing in the US. However, the upbeat data also eased expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut fell 25 basis points in December from 74.6% to 70.3%.
General election shock in Japan
On Sunday, the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito faced a shock result in the snap general election.
The ruling coalition party did not reach the 233 seats needed for a majority. The LDP-led coalition will have to negotiate with smaller parties to form a government, which may require concessions. Political uncertainty and possible influences on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate path impacted buyer demand for the Japanese yen.
On Monday, October 28, the USD/JPY pair rose 1% to 153.758, reflecting investor sentiment on the election outcome.
China’s industrial gains indicate declining demand
Economic figures from China indicated headwinds. From January to September, industrial profits fell 3.5% year-on-year after rising 0.5% in August. The unexpected profit drop was consistent with recent trading data and also signals weaker demand. Chinese exports rose by just 2.4% year-on-year in September, down from 8.7% in August.