Gold (XAU) Price Forecast: Rising Treasury Yields & Strong Dollar Challenge Gold Rally

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Traders see $2604.39 as a crucial support level, although the 50-day moving average of $2598.78 is gaining attention as a broader trend indicator.

At 11:32 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2736.02, down $9.77 or -0.36%

Profit-taking and geopolitical tensions are impacting gold

Gold’s pullback Friday largely reflects profit-taking by investors taking advantage of recent gains, while geopolitical concerns continue to support the metal’s value. Increased tensions in the Middle East, especially the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, are driving demand for safe havens. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict, although volatility in the region remains a key risk factor for gold investors.

Upcoming economic data could impact gold prices

Next week, the US economic calendar will be crucial for non-yielding gold assets, as key inflation and GDP growth data are expected to provide insight into the health of the economy. Analysts predict that these releases could influence the Fed’s policy expectations, further increasing gold price volatility. WisdomTree’s commodity strategist Nitesh Shah notes that inflation data will be critical in shaping market expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

Gold Rally faces demand challenges in Asia

Despite gaining 31.9% this year, making it gold’s biggest annual rally since 1979, the rise has dampened physical demand in key Asian markets. Higher prices have led to higher discounts in China, and consumers in India are buying less, affecting overall volume demand. This reduction in physical purchases could moderate price gains unless a new catalyst supports further rallies.

The strength of the dollar and government bond yields are creating pressure

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