After the early rise, gold, silver and miners fell. Overall, the gold and mining sectors are up, but not significantly. Most importantly, they rose in an insignificant way, while the USDX fell in a meaningful way (only from a daily perspective, but still).
Prime ministers and miners had good reason to protest today – on a large scale – but they didn’t. This suggests that they really want to fall in the coming weeks. Fortunately, you are already well positioned to benefit from this decline. Your profit in the current short position will likely grow.
Before we summarize, we want to discuss one specific thing: gold’s performance around Thanksgiving – during US presidential election years.
The text below is actually based on something I wrote four years ago. Because it was about a more distant past, it is still as relevant today as it was then. Of course I will add commentary on what happened in 2020.
Gold’s performance around Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving is on the fourth Thursday of November every year, meaning the holiday always falls between November 22nd and 28. What usually happens to the gold price before and after this period? Let’s take a look at gold’s seasonality for the fourth quarter.