Wage growth: the Fed’s main measure
The Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on average hourly earnings, which are expected to rise 0.3% in December and 4% year over year. Sustained wage increases above 3.5% per year could complicate the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, keeping monetary policy tight for longer. This would likely put downward pressure on equities and lift yields, especially on shorter-term government bonds. If wages are in line with expectations, the Fed can maintain its cautious approach, balancing inflation risks with economic growth.
Sector trends highlight the differences in the labor market
Sector-specific trends can provide deeper insights into the labor market. The manufacturing sector is expected to recover modestly after the strikes, while the construction sector continues to show resilience despite high interest rates. However, Wall Street estimates for the total payroll vary, with companies like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predicting lower profits of 125,000 to 120,000. Seasonal factors such as holiday rentals could distort December’s figures, complicating broader interpretations of the strength of the labor market.
Labor market resilience in times of slower growth
Despite signs of easing, the labor market remains stable. The number of vacancies in November exceeded 8 million, layoffs remained stable and worker mobility, as measured by the layoff rate, fell. While smaller companies moderate hiring plans, survey data indicate steady, albeit slower, workforce growth through 2025. This resilience supports the Fed’s goal of achieving balanced inflation without a sharp economic downturn.