Jim Bisognani’s Year in Review – NGC Weekly Market Report ……
Winter has greeted us a bit early in these parts. We’ve been on the receiving end of two moderate snowstorms in the last week. Who in creation ordered this fluffy white nuisance? The answer is, of course, Mother Nature; in cahoots with Old Man Winter, she thought that we should have this early frozen delight. As my Beth asked, “How can something be so pretty and gross at the same time?” A good question — being nearly lifelong inhabitants of New England, we just grin and bear it, hoping for an early spring.
December is traditionally a time of excitement and great joy, with holiday specials and seasonal music dominating the airwaves. I know it’s sometimes too much, but it is still nostalgic and enjoyable. One of my personal favorites is the stop-action animated Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer by Rankin-Bass, which just aired on December 6. This was exciting for me, because it marks the exact 60th anniversary of the special’s first airing on NBC on December 6, 1964. It was part of the General Electric Fantasy Hour, which broadcast that Sunday night at 5:30 p.m. ET.
It was a glorious, tune-filled special, one that I thoroughly enjoyed as a kid. Rudolph was the hot topic at school the following Monday morning. Wow, 60 years ago and it still rekindles that magic of my first viewing.
Now, watching the special on a large screen in Ultra HD brings every nuance of the characters to life, so to speak. The tune “Silver and Gold” sung by Burl Ives as Sam the Snowman had me immediately thinking of Silver Dollars and Gold Half Eagles, which this young coindexter had envied. I would receive an 1891-O Morgan Silver Dollar in my stocking that year, but my first gold coin would take longer to arrive.
As 2024 winds up, spot gold is poised for a strong finish, rallying over $2,700 per ounce. A quick glance at the calendar confirms that we’re just over a fortnight away from bringing the curtain down on 2024.
Gosh, did I forget something? No, I got most of my Christmas shopping done early… Perhaps I need gas? No, that’s not it…
Don’t worry, I know it’s time for my 14th Annual NGC Market Report Review. I didn’t forget, my fellow coindexters, no way! Once again, I’ve enlisted the assistance of coin dealers, coindexters, and coin nerds to assist in this annual production. I thank all of you in advance for your contributions!
Without further ado, I proudly present the 14th Annual NGC Market Report Review: Part 1.
What has been the biggest challenge for you and your business in the 2024 coin market?
Bob Green – Owner, Park Avenue Numismatics
Rising gold prices have folks worried about a reversal. We still feel $3,000 gold is approaching!
Jeff Garrett – Founder, Mid-American Rare Coin Galleries, Inc.
The biggest challenge for our company has been finding fresh numismatic material. We have been fortunate to have handled some really great coins this year, but when those sell, they need to be replaced. The flow of ancient coins from Europe has also slowed to a trickle after tighter restrictions from several countries. I sometimes feel like a college football coach — always recruiting for the next big thing.
James Sibley – Collector from Texas
As a collector of pre-1940 U.S. key coins and types in the higher Mint State and Proof grades, I’ve found it increasingly difficult each post-COVID year to add to my collection. I make the majority of my purchases at the larger auctions (Heritage, Stack’s Bowers, DLRC, and GreatCollections) using pre-determined bids (what one auction house calls “live proxy bids”), since I’m not always available during the live auction and, also, because I prefer not to subject myself to “auction fever.” While I copiously research auction records and price guides to try to get a feel for a coin’s value in today’s market, and then add a premium before submitting my proxy bid, this year it seems I’ve been the underbidder more often than not. I’ve started to feel a bit like the proverbial greyhound chasing the rabbit — no matter how hard I try to estimate what a winning bid should be, I often come up short.
I think I understand why prices continue to escalate: folks are putting their money into hard assets vs. holding “shrinking” dollars, and many baby-boomers now have the resources to collect the better coins (while the supply is fixed, the demand is not). Admittedly frustrated, I’m by no means giving up as, after all, the thrill of collecting is in the hunt.
Jim Stoutjesdyk – Senior Vice President and Partner, Heritage Auctions
The tremendous increase in our bullion business has been quite challenging this year. Heritage Auctions is now selling $50 million to $100 million in bullion each month compared to just a fraction of that a few years ago. This has required us to hire additional staff, create new computer programs and literally avoid tripping over the piles of silver bars and pallets of Silver Eagles that now cover the floor of our vault.
John Brush – President, David Lawrence Rare Coins (DLRC)
As a small business owner, you are only as good as the team you have working together. This year, we dramatically improved our website and back-end infrastructure and we replaced our CFO early in the year. Through these challenges, you learn a lot about how to do specific jobs that you’ve never tasked yourself with and, as a result, I came out of the experience with a much broader base of knowledge and with a stronger team. You also realize how much you rely on your co-workers. When you have a team like we do at DLRC, you walk away a little more thankful for each and every person involved.
Charles Morgan – Editor, CoinWeek
Scalability. In the media space, great work is only possible with broad buy-in from dealers and institutional partners. As the industry consolidates, marketing partners become more dear. In the coming year or two, all of the industry’s publishing businesses are going to have to compete for a smaller pie, and this may impact the quality of product and the growth potential of the hobby. That’s an immediate problem. Also a problem, and one that is going to be impossible to ignore, is that crypto has adopted the term “coin” and Google Search will increasingly send coin queries to crypto platforms; this will be an expensive problem for industry SEOs and marketing directors.
Jeff Kierstead – Owner, MintProducts Auctions
Managing my time to keep up with all the work to be done.
Chris B. – Ancients Collector from New Jersey
As a collector, keeping track of all the varieties and nuances of the holdered coin market (coins graded and encapsulated by third-party grading services like NGC).
Brian Hodge – Partner, Lee Minshull Rare Coins (LMRC)
We have been experiencing a set of market circumstances we haven’t seen in a while. Expensive coin inquiries are through the roof, but interest rates are also very high. While this has made it tougher to add great coins to inventory on speculation, it has had many benefits as well – such as allowing us to become leaner and more agile for the right opportunities.
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Who was your first numismatic mentor?
Lianna Spurrier – Creative Director, Numismatic Marketing
“Mentor” may be a strong word, but a local dealer named Don Ford was a key reason I stayed in the hobby. I was 11 or 12 the first time I went to his shop, but he was always happy to let me browse for an hour, answer any questions I had, and never minded that I only ever had a few dollars to spend. Going to Don’s every Saturday morning became a weekly routine, and his open welcome played a huge role in keeping me interested in the hobby.
James Sibley
In the early-to-mid-1960s, I attended a coin club in New Haven, Connecticut, where the adult collectors — collectively — took me under their wing. But then it was off to college and everything that consumed my time thereafter (military service, a career, family, etc.) until, in retirement, I had the time and resources to resume the “Hobby of Kings.”
Dan Goevert – Rare Coins 101
There are two mentors I’d like to mention. First, my grandmother. She introduced me to the hobby of coin collecting. One of my earliest childhood memories was riding to church on Sunday mornings snuggled between my grandparents in the backseat of the car. If (a big IF) my brother and I behaved during church, Grandma would reward us with a nickel or dime and a stick of gum on the ride home (for the record, I did not always earn the reward). Grandma explained that we needed to be on the lookout for something called a 1916-D Mercury Dime or a Buffalo Nickel with only three legs. She taught me there was something special about certain coins and I credit her with getting me interested in numismatics.
When I was a pre-teen, a local coin dealer named Chuck Arbuckle took the time to teach me about coins. For example, I learned from him how the law of supply and demand drives the price of collectible coins. I spent many enjoyable Saturday afternoons in his coin shop (RIP, Chuck). Even though I always smelled like an ash tray when Mom picked me up, the knowledge I gained was well worth it!
Chris B.
Jim Bisognani! (“Aw, shucks!” – Jim)
Charles Morgan
I’ve had so many. My grandmother for getting me started. Q. David Bowers for giving me a road map to see the hobby in a new way. Harvey Stack for always believing in me.
Bob Green
Stanley Apfelbaum at First Coinvestors (FCI) and Walter Breen.
Brian Timmons
My father was my first mentor.
Kevin Lipton – Owner, Kevin Lipton Rare Coins
My very first was Conrad “Corky” Vena, who had a coin shop in Hackensack, New Jersey. He was very patient with the 12-to-14-year-old Kevin. Jim Halperin was my next mentor when he hired me in early 1975 at age 15, followed by Steve Ivy, whom I spent the summer in Dallas working with in 1975.
Jeff Kierstead
Bob Casper from Bob’s Coins in Chelmsford, Massachusetts. He took me to my first coin show in 1973. Bob recently retired but I still see him regularly.
Jim Stoutjesdyk
In 1980, my father became partners with Don Moe at a small coin shop in Michigan called Coin Cove. I was 11 years old and started working at the shop after school. Don was affectionately known as “Big Moe” and he was a rather large man who was very crotchety and smoked a pipe. Big Moe taught me about the coin business, how to sort and grade coins, and even let me help customers. Looking back, I know now that he really planted the seed for me to become a rare coin dealer.
John Brush
My father, Wendell Brush. He convinced me to join him in his hobby of numismatics and, as much as I preferred baseball cards, coins eventually drew me in. He introduced me to the coin collecting world and to many other collectors, dealers, and leaders in the collecting community, and those people certainly supported my interests and guided me along the way. It takes a village, but I credit my father for getting me into that community and for encouraging it every step along the way.
Jeff Garrett
In 1974, I won a scholarship to the ANA Summer Seminar. I was 16 and it was the first time I had flown on an airplane. My teacher that week was Ken Bressett. He has been an important mentor for me for over 50 years now. I was very proud to step into his shoes as Editor of the Red Book.
Brian Hodge
I owe my journey to three people. One of them was a special woman who, while in her 90s, would have me read her the newspaper because macular degeneration would no longer allow her to do it herself. She one day pulled out a Morgan Dollar collection that really ignited my interest and the rest was history. My dad helped for introducing me to coins to begin with, but it was Lee Minshull who was the most significant mentor of my life.
Do you have any concerns about the present state of the hobby and the coin market?
Jeff Garrett
If bullion prices continue to rise, the price points for collectors will be an issue. The newly issued 2024 Flowing Hair Dollar in gold was issued by the United States Mint at over $3,600. Who can afford to collect Ten and Twenty Dollar gold coins these days? The Mint drains a LOT of money from collectors, especially after the coins have been graded and sold retail.
Dan Goevert
From my perspective, the present state of the hobby looks solid. Rare coin prices have slowed somewhat following the boom of the COVID era, but certainly they have not tanked. There was bound to be a cooling-off period, but nothing like the collapses we suffered in the early 1980s and again in the early ’90s. Thanks to grading consistency (compared to decades ago) and the reach of the internet, interest in coin collecting is both resilient and expanding. Many years from now, coin collecting will still be one of the world’s most popular hobbies.
Brian Hodge
I’m more excited about the hobby than ever before. I see the tide shifting to a younger and younger audience every day, which is necessary for the longevity of this industry we all love. When I see 20-something-year-olds slinging $250,000 coins, I think about how lucky we all are to be a part of something so great that it rewards hard work and talent better than most other industries we can think of.
Charles Morgan
Certain trophy coins continue to grab headlines and we should be thankful for that. The overall market, however, has experienced significant declines in coin values over the past 20 years. Long-term downward trends can be seen in the classic and modern coin segments and become more acute when you take inflation and other investment opportunities into account. This industry has relied for so long on rare coins being smart investments that it must answer for the fact that, generally speaking, they are not. We must better understand the product that we are selling so that a more effective market narrative can emerge.
Brian Timmons – Owner, Brian Timmons Rare Coins (BTRC)
I have seen quite an insurgence of young numismatists in the last few years. I am no longer worried about that being an issue for our hobby. I think the hobby and related business is going to thrive in the next decade and beyond, fueled by a massive bull market in precious metals that has already begun.
Jeff Kierstead
While some young people are finding their way into the business, I would like to see more.
Bob Green
None whatsoever. At shows, we see young numismatists rising through the ranks of our industry and that will keep the hobby moving in the right direction as older dealers slow down the show circuit.
John Brush
As much as I appreciate the media pushing coins as an investment, there are dangers that are to be had with this presentation, and it concerns me.
James Sibley
While my crystal ball is as foggy as they come, one has to question “how far is up” in the foreseeable future — the better coins have had a rapid run-up in price since COVID, when inflation was out of control. I feel that the direction of inflation and interest rates (in other words, the economy) will heavily influence a collector’s desire to pay significantly more each time a given coin comes to market.
Kevin Lipton
The coin hobby is extremely healthy. Business was consistently good throughout 2024. Lots of new young blood in the biz!
Jim Stoutjesdyk
If you asked me that question five years ago, I definitely would have had a lot of concerns. The COVID pandemic seemed to have really rejuvenated the market as people stayed inside for extended periods of time and focused attention on their hobby of numismatics. In addition, for the past five years while teaching at the ANA Summer Seminar and Witter Coin University, I have seen a whole new generation of young collectors/dealers who are extremely sharp and very passionate about numismatics. The future looks bright!
The U.S. Mint has made an “instant rarity” by striking 230 of the 2024 Gold Flowing Hair 230th Anniversary Dollars with a privy mark. The Mint then contracted them for sale at auction. What are your thoughts on this practice?
Jeff Garrett
I am actually surprised that it’s legal for the U.S. Mint to do this. I loved the idea of the privy mark coins being sent by random when collectors ordered the silver version. Striking a coin with a mintage of 230 and auctioning them off will alienate collectors, in my opinion. Only the ultra-rich can afford them, and they have given one company the profit selling them. I think there will some serious blowback on this one.
Brian Hodge
I worry a little bit about a tax-funded government service presenting opportunities that only the wealthy can afford but, at the same time, the market is setting the price, and if the Mint has figured out a way to bring in even more revenue, then I’m OK with it, as long as they don’t get carried away.
Charles Morgan
It’s fine. It actually helps the market, in my opinion, by bringing attention to these things. It’s a win-win for the Mint. Better to buy the first coin with a canceled die at an official auction for $200K+ than the first 2014-W Kennedy Gold Half Dollar sold at a coin show… don’t you think?
Bob Green
Shame on them. But hey, what do I know?
Chris B.
It will work once in a while, I think, but not all the time; I am really not sure. The Royal Mint (UK) has long been making these instant rarities, including pairing older (200 years older, at times) samples with their new issues — they even have a sales group (Mint Marque Account Managers) who make outgoing sales calls to those (like myself) who have bought their high-end (expensive) coin sets — I get a call once a month at a minimum by a specialist there.
Brian Timmons
I wish these would have been fairly distributed in the shipments from the U.S. Mint, but I am also excited to see what they bring at auction and what impact they have on the modern numismatic market, as I believe these may reset what people think modern coins can be worth. I love the design of these coins — it is my favorite modern coin design I’ve seen in my 25-year career.
John Brush
It allows those with the deepest pockets to secure the coins via auction, but … [keeping] coins out of the hands of the less wealthy … doesn’t allow collectors to find something in their “hunt” for treasures. I have no problem with the company that was given the auction deal. I can’t blame them for accepting.
James Sibley
The Mint is owned by some 335 million Americans who, in my opinion, should have a reasonable opportunity to acquire whatever collector coins the Mint produces. I believe the Mint is setting a bad precedent, and certainly embarked upon a slippery slope, by trying to manipulate the rare coin market. What were they thinking?
Kevin Lipton
I like it better when you get them for “free” at random when bought in huge quantity! However, this is a fabulous product that’s in great demand. We will be strong participants at the auction.
Jeff Kierstead
Something like this will probably create some numismatic buzz, but since the Mint has become a “major coin dealer,” the business hasn’t been the same.
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Most, and probably all of these 230 coins, will sell for at least five figures. That really limits the number of collectors who can afford to buy them. Sadly, many of these coins will probably get sold to telemarketers who will then mark them up even higher, making them even more unaffordable to the average collector. The Mint should have randomly given these to people who placed orders for non-privy mark coins. This would have at least given more people a chance to get one and created even more interest and excitement for the issue.
That jolly old elf from the north has gifted you a round-trip passage back to the exact time period you request. You have a 24-hour pass and $100 dollars (or the world currency equivalent) to spend. What coins or other collectibles will you try to locate and bring back to the present?
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Oh, that would be so much fun! Do I go back to Philadelphia in 1793 and buy as many Gem Red Half Cents and Large Cents that I can find (including Chain AMERI Cents that look like they were just struck)? Or perhaps go to California during the Gold Rush and buy all of the greatest pioneer gold coin rarities in Gem uncirculated condition – such as issues from Dubosq & Company, J.S. Ormsby and Pacific Company? It certainly would be fun to attend the Lorin Parmelee auction in 1890 or the Matthew Stickney auction in 1907 with $100 to spend. Perhaps the ultimate challenge would be to go to the Philadelphia Mint in 1907 and try bribing the coiner $100 to strike a second Judd-1776, the currently unique MCMVII Indian Head Double Eagle, considered by many to be America’s most valuable coin and a national treasure.
Jeff Kierstead
I’d buy some 1830s Proof gold coins that the Mint sold at or near face value. I’d make sure they didn’t get hairlined on the way back!
Kevin Lipton
I’d go to San Francisco in 1909 and buy 10,000 Gem Uncirculated 1909-S VDB pennies!
Lianna Spurrier
I’m going back to Japan, circa 1624, to ask as many question as I can to the man running the Gold Mint! Goto Mitsutsugu set up the Gold Mint in 1599 and died in 1625. I’ve done a significant amount of research into the coins produced during this window, and I could answer so many of my remaining questions by talking to the man who oversaw it all. I would use the money to try to purchase as many relevant documents as possible to confirm what he told me. I haven’t been able to locate any original sources for this time period, possibly due to the Great Meireki Fire that destroyed the Mint in 1657.
James Sibley
It’s 1793 and I’ve just put an order in for all the cents the Mint will sell me. Or 1794 will be OK, too. Actually, I would have liked to have been the person who exchanged my wife’s silver for the Mint’s Half Dismes in 1792, rather than that Jefferson fellow!
John Brush
I’m a stickler for U.S. numismatics… I’d love to go back and procure the 1822 $5 or join Israel Switt and exchange my $100 for five 1933 $20 Saints. I wonder how many more his family has?
Brian Timmons
I would try to go back to 1794 and pick out a Choice BU 1794 Dollar.
Chris B.
I love early U.S. coins, so would love to go back to 1805 and try to gather as many examples of the previous 13 years or so as I could for my $100. A hundred dollars in 1805 is about $2,700 in today’s dollars, so I would have to hope that the coin market was largely ignored and cheap.
Bob Green
I’m grabbing Alexander the Great gold coins. Just love those coins and am fascinated by him.
Jeff Garrett
Being at the U.S. Mint in 1794 would be exciting, and $100 in face value of 1794 coinage would be a pretty cool stack of coins!
Brian Hodge
With $100 I’d travel back to 1849 and ask James Longacre for the other 1849 $20.
Charles Morgan
I think time travelers would be in for a rude awakening. I bet they’d lack the necessary knowledge to get anything of note accomplished. Wouldn’t have the right clothes, wouldn’t have the right haircut, wouldn’t use the right words… The money would have to be period, but also fresh enough not to draw suspicion. The Mint Cash Window might not have the coins you are looking for… you’ll probably catch some sort of illness… I’d be more interested in going forward to figure out who to place my bets on.
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Well, my friends, I thank you all for your excellent commentary for this first installment of the 2024 Coin Market Year in Review! By the way, the #1 2024 Gold Flowing Hair with canceled die just realized $440,000! Looks like Brian Timmons will have to spring for a shot of Pappy 20 for the President of the PNG!
My fellow coindexters, you still have time to track down that wonderful numismatic item for that coin nerd on your holiday shopping list. Hey, I will take any of your castoffs…
Until next time, be safe and happy collecting!
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