At 11:25 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2781.12, up $6.54 or +0.24%.
Technical data indicate market vulnerability despite rising trend
The technical outlook for gold remains strongly bullish, with the main trend pointing to the upside as long as prices remain above the swing bottom at $2,708.76. However, the market’s meteoric rise left it trading well above its 50-day moving average of $2,614.60.
The widening gap between the current gold price and this moving average increases the likelihood of a potential bearish reversal pattern as the market becomes more sensitive to pullbacks in the event of a reversal or correction. A close below the 50-day moving average would likely signal a downward shift, making this a crucial level for traders monitoring technical signals.
Speculation about Fed rate cuts and weak dollar drive fuel gains
In addition to political uncertainty, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened gold’s appeal. With the Fed expected to cut short-term borrowing costs by 0.25% in response to weakening labor market data, the prospect of lower interest rates is putting upward pressure on gold. Given gold’s tendency to perform well in low interest rate environments, the potential for further rate cuts could underpin support for the metal, especially as the US dollar shows continued weakness.
Strong investment demand is boosting gold and offsetting weak jewelry sales
So far in 2024, gold is up 35%, putting it on track for its best annual performance since 1979. Investment demand remains robust, offsetting a decline in jewelry sales, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Global gold demand, excluding over-the-counter trading, remained stable year-on-year at 1,176.5 tonnes in the third quarter, as higher investment volumes offset weaker jewelery demand. However, the WGC also predicts that demand for gold in India, traditionally a major consumer of the metal, could fall to a four-year low in 2024 due to economic factors and changing consumer preferences.
Outlook: Short-term bullish bias with potential for volatility
The outlook for gold remains bullish in the near term, supported by election-driven safe-haven demand and expectations of a Fed rate cut, both of which are in line with gold’s positive performance in uncertain times. However, traders should remain cautious about potential volatility due to gold’s high level relative to its 50-day moving average. Failure to maintain support above this technical level could lead to corrective price action, but overall, gold prices are likely to continue to benefit from the unique combination of low interest rate expectations, dollar softness and geopolitical uncertainties.