Pound falls on soft inflation figures
The British pound briefly fell below $1.30 after weaker-than-expected inflation data from Britain raised expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Inflation fell to 1.7% in September, the lowest since April 2021, above the forecast of 1.9%. This fueled expectations for a BoE rate cut in November and a possible second cut in December.
Sterling later recovered to $1.3018 but remains vulnerable, with ING’s currency strategist Francesco Pesole suggesting further downside for the pound below $1.30. The euro lost ground as traders await Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a 25 basis point interest rate cut is widely expected.
Dollar companies anticipate Fed decision and election risks
The dollar remains firm, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. Traders have priced in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. The potential re-election of former President Donald Trump is also seen as positive for the dollar, adding another layer of support for the greenback. The euro remains near a 10-week low, trading at $1.0891, and the dollar rose to 149.37 yen.
Fed officials remain cautious about future rate cuts, with the Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic hinting at just one rate cut before 2023, while the San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly expects one or two rate cuts by 2024.