Jim Bisognani’s Coin Year in Review – NGC Weekly Market Report ……
* * *
Well, the new year is here! Just thinking ahead — at the end of 2025, we’ll be a quarter of the way through an entirely new century. Wow, I’m getting old! It seems like only yesterday that there was a universal sigh of relief as the fearful anticipation of Y2K’s havoc across technology never came to fruition. Again, I’m getting old.
As this report posts, the 70th FUN Show — and the first numismatic event of the new year — was just held in Orlando, Florida. Coming up is a pair of numismatic mainstays: the 53rd installment of the ever-popular NYINC and the 68th edition of the Houston Money Show. I would say that the next few weeks should be a great barometer of where the numismatic hobby is heading in 2025.
Before we report on that trio, though, I dare say there’s one last report I want to share with my fellow coindexters and the numismatic faithful: the exciting conclusion to my 14th Annual Coin Market Review!
I want to thank everyone who graciously participated in the annual ritual. It won’t be long before I’ll field questions for my 15th Market Review (wow, I’m getting old!). However, without further ado, I proudly present the conclusion to my 14th Annual NGC Year in Review.
You can make one numismatic purchase for your collection. Money is no object. What would it be and why?
Lianna Spurrier – Creative Director, Numismatic Marketing
Most likely a Gaku ichibu. Japanese bar money is my primary collection; the Gaku ichibu was the first rectangular coin in Japan and is one of the most expensive in the series. They don’t come up for sale too often, but it’s a unique design and such a historically significant part of the series.
Bob Green – Owner, Park Avenue Numismatics
A 1927-D St. Gaudens in Gem Mint. Regrettably, I had one in my personal collection and sold it to a client who promised one day to sell it back to me. He passed away, and his family decided to auction the collection.
Jeff Garrett – Founder, Mid-American Rare Coin Galleries, Inc.
The 1907 Indian Head Double Eagle pattern would be an easy choice. I think it is the most valuable coin in the world. It’s an amazing coin with an amazing story. The coin last sold in 1984 for almost $500,000. There are a couple of other great coins that would be on the shortlist, but they are in the Smithsonian and will never be sold.
Charles Morgan – Editor, CoinWeek
A Horseman $10. The design is the encapsulation of the spirit of the Old West. I’ve been lucky enough to film one of these and view a few others. I’ll never own one.
James Sibley – Collector from Texas
Either a high-grade 1895 Morgan Dollar or an 1885 Trade Dollar.
Jim Stoutjesdyk – Senior Vice President and Partner, Heritage Auctions
In our 2021 ANA Auction, Heritage Auctions sold a 1794 dollar graded MS66+ for $6.6 million. Before the auction, I was able to keep that coin on my desk for a day. Throughout the day, I gazed upon it with great admiration, and by the end of the day, I was completely mesmerized by it. The coin was obtained by Sir William Strickland when he visited the United States from late September 1794 to July 1795. During his visit, Strickland was hosted by John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and George Washington. If that coin appeared at auction again — and money was no object — I would definitely be its new owner. Oh, the stories that coin could tell!
John Brush – President, David Lawrence Rare Coins (DLRC)
I’d love to buy the 1854-S $5 in AU58 that I acquired for the Hansen Collection. It was sold in the first auction by Stack’s Bowers that occurred after the country was shut down due to COVID. Less than 10 dealers were able to attend the sale, and I made the trip to California as this was a must-have acquisition for the collection. There’s a whole story about attending this sale and the coins that we bought there, but the unknown in the world added a huge level of stress to the event. The coin will forever hold a place in my memory due to the story behind it.
Jeff Kierstead – Owner, MintProducts Auctions
I would buy the 1913 Liberty Nickel that was featured on Hawaii 5-O. I thought it was the coolest thing to have a coin be the star of a major TV show.
Chris B. – Ancients Collector from New Jersey
The 1933 Double Eagle because I love the entire double eagle series and its history, and because it is (I believe) the most valuable coin in the world.
Brian Hodge – Partner, Lee Minshull Rare Coins (LMRC)
I would want to make as much of an impact as I could, so it would probably be the 1933 Saint. I think my stewardship of the coin would bring about other unforeseeable but significant opportunities, and I’d already have one of the most significant hurdles in the history of our hobby out of the way if I wanted to pursue an Eliasberg-like dream of buying them all (since money would be no object).
Kevin Lipton
Teddy’s coin, the Judd 1776! It’s a piece of art – as well as unique.
Brian Timmons – Owner, Brian Timmons Rare Coins (BTRC)
I would love to own a Choice AU/BU 1794 dollar. It has always been a dream coin for me. I’ve owned a few in lower grades but have never had the opportunity to acquire a truly choice high-grade example.
When you get a break from work, what other hobbies or pursuits do you enjoy?
Bob Green
Traveling has always been fun, and I enjoy being on the water, so boating when I can get out is great! I also enjoy watching basketball and football games. I’m too old to play but never too old to cheer on my teams.
Jeff Garrett
I enjoy trying to play golf. I live on a beautiful golf course, and you would think that after living here for 30 years, I’d be better at it! I also enjoy travel with my family. Seeing the world is an important part of education for your children.
Charles Morgan
I write and record songs. I read, and I work as a hobby.
Brian Timmons
Traveling to all of our country’s national parks with my wife and children has become quite a passion for me. The majesty of Yellowstone… The breathtaking views at Yosemite… I could go on and on about all of the different parks we’ve been to and the different outdoor adventures they have led to. We have many still on our “bucket list” that we intend to visit in the future.
James Sibley
As a collector at heart, I enjoy our 20th-century American impressionist landscape paintings, 18th-century American antiques, and one of the larger collections of walrus-tusk ivory animal figures carved by Siberian Yupiks from the Bering Sea.
Lianna Spurrier
Far too many! I collect coins but I also seem to collect hobbies: horse riding, ballroom/country dancing, weight lifting, fiction writing, reading, traditional archery — the list goes on!
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Ironically, when I’m not traveling extensively for Heritage, I enjoy traveling for pleasure. I’ve been to over 40 different countries — everywhere, from Cuba to Tasmania. I plan on continuing to travel for the rest of my life, with Egypt, Machu Picchu in Peru, and Greece being high on my bucket list.
John Brush
I tend to see that hobbies change as we grow older. I used to love tennis and softball, but I’ve recently had shoulder surgery and some issues there that have stopped those activities. I still enjoy a game of chess on occasion, but my most frequent activities revolve around my wife and kids.
One of my sons (Wes) has jumped into the world of numismatics, so he works with me two days a week while homeschooling… and when I get home, I get peppered with coin-related questions. My other son (Luke) is much more into technology, so I have him work on all of my computer issues, and he tries to keep me up to date on what’s going on in the tech world. He also starts dinner conversations about history, whether it’s Ancient Rome or Europe in World War II. If there was a recording device in my house, I think it would confuse even the most seasoned three-letter government agency! Finally, to the chagrin of my understanding and kind wife, we wear a lot of orange in our house as we follow the University of Tennessee in all of the major sports.
Jeff Kierstead
I like to follow the automotive industry.
Chris B.
Traveling.
Brian Hodge
I have three kids (ages 15, 14, and 7), so they take up virtually all of my time when I’m not working. From sports to school events, their schedule is unrelenting! It’s a blessing, though, and I wouldn’t trade it for anything.
Kevin Lipton
I swim and do yoga. I collect art nouveau and art decorations. I own over 20 important Tiffany lamps and have a major collection of Hungarian and French ceramics.
What segment(s) of the coin market has or have outperformed or underperformed your expectations this year?
Kevin Lipton
Overperformed: high-end Proof gold. Underperformed: the silver type coin market.
Jeff Garrett
By far the best-performing coins this year have been “trophy coins” and “top pop” coins. These coins continue to amaze when they cross the auction block. The biggest underperforming coins have been “generic gold” coins. Common-date U.S. gold coins in grades less than MS63 are hard to sell for anything above melt value. This will change in the future after everyone adjusts to the new higher prices for gold or if gold drops significantly.
Jeff Kierstead
I think the high-grade type has gotten a little stronger this year, and currency has done very well in our auctions this year.
James Sibley
It seems that each time a true rarity comes to market, the results are astounding — many times, the hammer amount (including buyer’s premium) far exceeds the auction house’s estimate. The Mint State and Proof 19th-century type seem to be stable or even a bit soft lately. And, of course, gold is heavily influenced by spot, which will increase if the world continues to boil over (Ukraine, the Middle East, Taiwan, etc.) and our government refuses to live within its means.
And, of course, gold, because of what’s happened to spot, but I continue to be amazed at the number of $1 million+ coins sold at auction. Who are these guys buying these ultra rarities? Yeah, I know: tech zillionaires and a few others, but the numbers are insane.
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Trophy coins continue to be extremely strong and show no signs of slowing down. Generic pre-1933 U.S. gold coins have definitely underperformed and the premium over their gold value has totally disappeared for many series. As of the date of writing, Heritage is buying circulated and slabbed MS63 $20 Saints for less than melt while paying only $20 over melt for slabbed MS64 Saints.
Rare date $20 Saints, especially those that are CAC-approved, continue to be extremely strong. For example, we sold a 1931-D $20 Saint graded MS66 for $156,000 in our 2018 FUN auction. That same coin appeared in our ANA auction in 2024 and realized $360,000.
Bob Green
Gold has clearly outperformed. We understand that markets go up and down, so underperformance is perhaps a buying opportunity. U.S. Gold $20 St. Gaudens, $20 Liberty Double Eagles, and most all gold series have been on fire. They’re not making them any longer, and new buyers are very interested in owning these series.
John Brush
I don’t really look at the coin market as outperforming or underperforming my expectations, generally. If we were good prognosticators on this, we’d be trading stocks! High-end coins continue to bring strong values and lower-quality coins are still trying to find permanent homes. If there’s anything that has underperformed my expectations, it’s unattractive, over-graded coins that continue to drop in value as the populations grow. We have seen a large number of modern coins that are now “worth grading”, and the populations on many of these have been driven up as a result.
With that said, I would say that series like Washington Quarters, Jefferson Nickels, Roosevelt Dimes, etc., that have struggled simply due to the supply, are now exceeding the demand. The “top pops” of yesterday are no longer even in the top five. I’m not sure if this is “gradeflation” or simply the fact that more coins are getting graded, but it definitely shows in the public auction records.
Chris B.
Ancients have outperformed. I’m not sure if anything I collect has underperformed (i.e., lost money), but I am not a seller of coins, just a buyer, so I haven’t been exposed to seller’s remorse. Just buyer’s remorse.
The 2024 230th Anniversary Flowing Hair Silver Medal and Gold Coin — what a joke this circus is. Having said that, I have bought them as part of a birth-year collection (I have a granddaughter born in 2024). Otherwise, I would not have indulged.
Brian Hodge
Proof gold has gone up significantly over the past year. I think this area represents the crème de la crème of numismatic mastery. The coins are beautiful and rare and have become conversation pieces in prominent collections.
Brian Timmons
Gold has soared to all-time highs and beyond, and I am starting to think the sky is the limit for precious metals!
World and Ancient coins have been attracting much more attention and bringing record prices at major auctions. How have you integrated them into your inventory?
John Brush
I think that World coins — especially Ancient coins — are a new frontier in numismatics with a huge opportunity for growth. We offer some of the major types that we buy and sell, but we also offer quite a few of the lesser-valued pieces via auction. Many dealers like these as there is less price discovery for collectors to investigate, so it’s a minefield for many collectors to enter unless they really are willing to do the research. I’m a supporter of the new inventory concept and of expanding these offerings to collectors, but I’m a slow adapter as I want collectors to learn about what they are buying to make them better collectors when entering a new type of collectible.
Brian Hodge
World and Ancient coins have become such a significant part of our inventory that I would say, at any given moment, it can take up to 30-40% of it and sometimes more. We absolutely love the opportunities this area affords. I started getting heavily into world coins especially just to keep learning and having fun with something new to me, and now it’s become a near obsession. I would think that if I were a major collector in today’s society, I’d perhaps make world rarities consist of upwards of 50% of my collection.
Jeff Garrett
My company started creating a really big inventory of Ancient coins several years ago. I think they are a great long-term value, and it’s a global market. We have about 35,000 NGC Ancient coins in stock. We only sell them wholesale and supply dealers around the country. We handle some great World coins but do not stock them in the same manner. I am very bullish on the Ancient coin market.
James Sibley
At this time, I only collect U.S. coins – which, for me, does not include NCLTs, patterns, and errors. However, I like the idea of holding in my hand something that is 2,000 years old. So, who knows? I might pick up an ancient or two before I hang up my coin-collecting spurs.
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Heritage Auctions has recognized that the World and Ancient coin market has definitely seen much more interest and activity. For many years, our World and Ancient coin department had three to five employees, and if an auction reached seven figures it was considered a good sale. Today, we have 27 employees in our world and ancient coin department and have eight-figure auctions pretty regularly.
Bob Green
Ancients have a numismatic story to tell, and while I do not trade too much in the space, I’ve seen some amazing sets like the 12 Caesars sell for seven figures from a well-known dealer in California.
Jeff Kierstead
We certainly expect our auction offerings in this category to grow over the next year.
Chris B.
I collect coins from countries I have lived in, so at present, that amounts to seven countries. I love history and therefore drifted into Ancients and Western European Thalers a while back. I am amazed that many of these pieces have survived without damage and are not insanely expensive.
Kevin Lipton
We have sold several large hoards, including a few hundred high-end Athenian “owls” and two sets of gold Caesars. Collectors love this stuff!
Brian Timmons
I stock a good amount of world and ancient coins and really love the Story Vault program for ancients. I think having a variety for collectors when they come into my retail store is key to long-term growth for our hobby.
Gold spot is nearing $3,000 per ounce. Is this price point a detriment to your business? If so, what gold coins are you recommending to the coindexter on a budget of around $3,000 — nearly the price of an ounce of gold?
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Many gold coins that should have a numismatic premium are now getting sold for a tiny premium over their melt value. Take, for example, the First Spouse $10 gold series. Many of these coins have mintages of under 3,000 coins, yet they can be purchased for just a few percent over melt. Seems like good value to me when people realize how scarce these coins really are.
Charles Morgan
Yes! Gold needs to be in the Goldilocks zone or it’s bad for the industry. Investors want to turn profits and see future growth potential, but they don’t want to go in too deep when prices reach these levels. If silver had a similar run-up, to let’s say $100 an ounce or more, it would be devastating for moderns.
Bob Green
Common-date $20 St. Gaudens, hands down. The premiums are so low it’s too good to pass up, in my humble opinion.
Brian Timmons
I am recommending MS63 to 65 $20 gold pieces to my clients right now.
John Brush
I wouldn’t say that it has really affected our business. It changes the outlook for investors, and I think it gets people excited to see the price of gold going higher, but investor types have long been the ones that are most affected by this, and I haven’t seen a change for those that are dealing in more numismatically-related pieces.
Jeff Kierstead
I think it takes the average collector out of the gold market. While common gold coins have increased in value, many scarcer coins that were once large premiums over their gold value are now at very small premiums. There could be some long-term opportunities there.
Chris B.
Gold will continue to climb — I have been buying gold since 1970, so this, to me, is just a perverse dollar-cost averaging strategy. I recommend buying the highest quality coin you can afford, even if it slows the growth of your collection — less is more.
Brian Hodge
I think it certainly begins to affect affordability for generics and bullion-related items, but at the same time it would be a major psychological barrier that, once penetrated, would ignite a maelstrom of activity for expensive coins.
Jeff Garrett
The price points for U.S. gold coins are definitely tough for sales. The prices for smaller denomination gold coins have not moved very much and are great values. Consider buying as many different issues of mint state U.S. gold dollars as you can. They are real bargains.
Kevin Lipton
I would think the 2017 High Relief Gold Liberty is the bargain at these levels.
At present (amazingly), MS63-64 St. Gaudens Double Eagles are being offered at 3.5 to 4.75% over melt value. Is there still a numismatic component here, or are these type coins being relegated to mere “bullion” status?
Charles Morgan
Honestly, type Saints were always bullion. We marketed them as more for myriad reasons at a time when the market wasn’t flush with freshly minted gold bullion coins.
Kevin Lipton
They have always been glorified gold sovereigns, in my opinion.
Jeff Kierstead
If gold was high enough (say $10,000 per ounce), we would probably be melting some pretty scarce gold coins. There’s little collector interest in mid-grade Saints at these levels, and I imagine investors are waiting on the sidelines.
Bob Green
Supply versus demand could create much higher premium as the supply sells and collectors hold. They are the best buy in the market as far as I’m concerned.
Jeff Garrett
There have been so many of these coins entering the market in the last few years — tens of thousands of them. They are really just bullion at this point. Accurately graded MS65 coins are a good buy, as most of the coins in hoards have a lot of bag marks.
Jim Stoutjesdyk
Sadly, these beautiful coins are being relegated to just bullion status. I’ve often told people that when gold hits $3,000 an ounce, we will probably be melting MS63 and MS64 Saints (slab and all into the melting pot), and MS65 Saints will trade at a small premium of $25-$50 over melt.
Brian Timmons
These are a great value and should be bought over gold bullion at these levels.
John Brush
They are bullion for now… The market has far too much supply, and the demand hasn’t caught up yet.
Chris B.
The premium may be low, but the value has gone up. I am not a coin dealer, but surely there are fewer buyers at these higher prices… On the other hand, the premium for the high-end material will continue to rise until the tax laws change.
Brian Hodge
The price of gold has changed the barrier to entry in our markets so significantly that some areas like this have such low premiums that they become a no-brainer to those with the funds. However, I think the premiums have to be this low to absorb them at these price levels. If gold drops again, you’ll see the premiums go back up, but will that offset your loss from the price of gold? It’s a good game to ponder. Someone will make a lot of money at these levels and someone will lose a lot of money, all depending on their market timing.
World mints are producing an abundance of special limited-editions and commemorative coins. They are certainly profitable for the Mints, but is this practice too much for the hobby to absorb?
Bob Green
If you build it, they will come. But after you buy them, understand that the dealers of most of this material consider these mostly at melt when sold.
Jeff Garrett
That is a good question, and I have thought that was the case for many years. It’s a free market, and the public still seems to buy enough to encourage continued production. As mentioned in the first question, finding enough vintage coins for my business is a big challenge. The big marketing companies have to have a steady supply of new coins to sell and only modern coins can fill that need.
Charles Morgan
You’d have to look at how these products perform in their markets. No foreign mint produces coins for the U.S. market without a U.S. coin dealer backing or promoting the program. There have been successful programs in recent years, but also plenty of missed opportunities.
Jim Stoutjesdyk
If collectors buy these coins directly from the world mints with the understanding that they are beautiful to look at but not necessarily good investments, I think that’s OK. But if collectors are buying these coins from telemarketers who are getting them third-party graded and marking them up an exorbitant amount because they are PR69 or PR70, that is totally not good. When these people go to sell these coins in the future and find out they are only worth pennies on the dollar compared to what they paid, they will probably be very discouraged and never want to be involved in numismatics again.
John Brush
I attended the World’s Fair of Money in Berlin this past February and took an early dive into the world of limited-edition modern coins and commemoratives. It was a fascinating experience and one that I learned a lot from. I’m actually a huge supporter of these issues as collectibles as I love the ingenuity that is coming from these productions.
I can’t speak for the long-term investment potential of these coins, but they are certainly popular amongst collectors and I think that’s what is important. I haven’t seen an issue with the hobby absorbing these as the offerings have been quite diverse. And collectors can collect what they want. I probably won’t be the person buying a set of Dr. Seuss coins, but I have to admit that I was intrigued by the Star Wars issues and the Major League Baseball issues. The important thing that we have to remember is that we need to focus on relevancy and what the collector wants. The collecting marketplace will tell us when we’ve gone too far or overproduced!
Jeff Kierstead
I believe it is.
James Sibley
They are beautiful to look at, but I hope folks aren’t planning on retiring from illusionary future profits, as I feel that such coins, in most cases, won’t be worth much more than what they sold.
Chris B.
I ignore these for the most part. I am mostly interested in legal tender past and present and from all over the world.
Brian Hodge
I worry about oversaturation and sustainability. If you continue schlepping limited-editions they feel gimmicky, and when collectors try to sell, they may become instantly discouraged learning their prized limited-edition collectible isn’t worth as much because the next prized limited-edition dethrones it.
Kevin Lipton
NOPE!
Brian Timmons
I think the key to all of this mass-marketing of moderns is to get an idea for the public’s appetite for a given product and try not to over-produce them. Any modern product that is available for sale for an extended period of time by global Mints was overproduced, in my opinion.
Do you foresee the second Trump presidency having an impact on the coin and collectibles market? Will it be positive or negative?
Jim Stoutjesdyk
We have already seen a noticeable rise in the stock market since Trump got elected, with the Dow hitting an all-time high of over 45,000. Trump has said he is going to lower taxes, make the US energy independent again, and get inflation under control. All of these things will make Americans feel richer when they see the value of their 401Ks going up and the price of gas and groceries going down. When people have more disposable income, they tend to spend more on their hobbies, so I am very bullish that the Trump Presidency is going to be very good for rare coins and collectibles.
Brian Timmons
I don’t think Trump being elected will impact the market. I believe we have ignited a fire under precious metals that will cause a massive rise in the pricing and collectability of rare coins and bullion that cannot be slowed down by politics. I believe the world’s realization of true monetary value will be changed by this Bull Run forever.
Brian Hodge
I think it will have a positive impact because people will have more money to spend. If Kamala got in, I think we would have seen a temporary and sharp increase in business because of the fear of what her agenda could have done to wealth, taxes, and overregulation, but at the same time, once enacted, people would have a lot less discretionary income.
Bob Green
Principally, I think politics and the hobby of rare coins should mix. Enjoy collecting and unite under whoever is our nation’s leader. Nobody stays president for more than eight years for a reason!
Jeff Garrett
I think positive as the “rich get richer” and they spend money on their hobbies. Plus, tax cuts will add extra money to spend on coins.
James Sibley
Definitely an impact: It largely depends on how successful Elon Musk and others are in shrinking the federal deficit, as we know that President-elect Trump, in his first go-round in the White House, liked to spend money — money in many cases we didn’t have — which probably is a good thing for the coin market, as the resultant inflation attracts folks looking to exchange their depreciating dollars for tangible assets.
John Brush
I’m just glad that the election season is over. I suspect that the Trump presidency will have a positive impact on the market as the economy seems to be gaining strength. I don’t credit a presidential change for this, but instability and the lack of assurance always concern me, so I’m just glad it’s over!
Jeff Kierstead
I don’t think there will be any direct impact.
Chris B.
I think there will be a positive impact.
Kevin Lipton
His second term could hurt the buyer in the “gold” protection market.
* * *
Well, my friends, that is a wrap. I hope that 2025 will be a great year for all my fellow coindexters. As always, I truly appreciate your feedback. Hey, it’s never too early — if you can think of any questions you would like me to address my panel for my 15th installment, please email them to me.
Until next time, be safe and happy collecting!
* * *